Atif Rasheed, president of Delhi BJP’s minority cell has a tough job at hand. His party’s top leadership has asked him to ensure that at least 20,000 Muslims attend Narendra Modi‘s public rally scheduled for Sunday, 29 September, at the Japanese Park in West Delhi’s Rohini area. As part of Narendra Modi‘s image makeover, the BJP hopes that a significant presence of the minority community at his rallies will signal a kinder, gentler saffron party. But the more immediate task at hand is the upcoming Delhi elections. With Muslims forming 11 percent of electoral population in the national capital, any party eyeing the Delhi assembly, cannot ignore the community in the run-up to the November 2013 election. Muslims can influence election results in around eight of 70 assembly seats in Delhi. Muslims comprise 35-40 percent of the electorate in three seats in central Delhi and five in East Delhi.
Last Sunday, the Congress party conducted Dalit Muslim Mahasammelan where it listed its contribution for the welfare of the community. The latest entrant into Delhi politics, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is courting the Muslim vote by criticising the Congress for implicating its youth in false terror cases. The BJP has fewer cards to play. The party is downplaying the community’s animosity towards Modi and is instead focusing on how the Congress has cheated the Muslim community even while talking secularism. “This time, Muslims have decided to teach a lesson to the Congress even if it means extending support to Narendra Modi,” says Rasheed. But conversations with Muslim voters in Delhi indicate that Rasheed’s optimism maybe misplaced. “It is not about good or bad. It is about lack of alternatives,” says Mohammad Aasim, electronics and communications engineer from Ballimaran area which is the Muslim heartland in central Delhi and the constituency of Congress leader and state food & civil supplies minister Haroon Yusuf. Aasim points out that the situation is not too bad under the current MLA regarding basic amenities. But there is no movement for the citizens here in terms of social mobility, he says, “People are so entangled in basic facilities that they cannot think beyond them. An ambulance or fire brigade cannot enter this area due to heavy traffic which is the result of small industrial units. But despite numerous accidents, nothing changed. Anything beyond bijli, sadak, paani is a non- issue here,” he says. Aasim will consider voting for the AAP, but a vote for the BJP, he says, is “out of question.” The voter refrain in other assembly constituencies in Delhi where Muslims call the shots is the same- even if you are disgruntled with the Congress, vote for it to keep the BJP at bay. Exceptions to this trend are the assembly seats where political leaders matters more than the party. Matia Mahal seat in the walled city is the stronghold of Lok Janshakti Party MLA Shoib Iaqbal. Iqbal won last three consecutive assembly elections, every time contesting from a different party. “He is a party in himself,” says Tayab Mirza, who runs one of the oldest printing press units in the area. While the MLA is said to have allegiance with the builder mafia, it is not a concern for the inhabitants of the area who are happy with Iqbal as he gets their work done. Elsewhere in Okhla, where the residents were unhappy with Congress’ stand on Batla House encounter, the party is trying to win back their trust. Asif Mohammad, the sitting MLA from RJD and one of the most vocal critics of the Congress, recently joined the Congress. While many Okhla residents are surprised by his move, it may work in Congress’s favour in case the party fields Asif as its candidate in the upcoming elections. “He has always won on emotional plank. Currently, people are upset with him, but you never know. He might come up with something new right before election day,” says Ashraf Khan, who runs a tea stall in the area. The Congress was not a popular choice amongst Delhi’s Muslims until the 1998 assembly polls, when 53 percent Muslims voted for the Congress. Its vote share rose 68 percent during the 2003 polls. However, the party lost five percent vote share of Muslims in latest assembly polls held in 2008, as a sizable chunk of the community voted for the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) instead. The BSP ranked third in six assembly seats with predominant Muslim population. In East Delhi, the Muslim vote was split among independent candidates and regional parties such as the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal. Migrants, especially families from Western Uttar Pradesh, form the vote share of the BSP and the SP in Delhi. But experts say that this time, due to recent riots in Uttar Pradesh’s Muzzafarnagar district, these votes will come back to the Congress party’s fold. “The BSP was in power in UP during 2008 Delhi assembly elections. Its vote share in Delhi reached 14 percent. This time, the SP is in power in UP and it was expecting similar gains in Delhi. But the party is now on a back foot because of Muzaffarnagar episode,” says Navaid Hamid, Muslims rights activist and member of the National Integration Council. “This is how the Congress will indirectly gain from the riots,” he adds. So which way will Delhi’s Muslims sway? Should the Congress be worried this time? “Status quo will continue,” says Manisha Priyam, political analyst. “While the Congress has done nothing special for Muslims in Delhi, their situation is not very bad either. There is nothing going significantly wrong for the Congress which will cost it the Muslim vote.”
Last Sunday, the Congress party conducted Dalit Muslim Mahasammelan where it listed its contribution for the welfare of the community. The latest entrant into Delhi politics, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is courting the Muslim vote by criticising the Congress for implicating its youth in false terror cases. The BJP has fewer cards to play. The party is downplaying the community’s animosity towards Modi and is instead focusing on how the Congress has cheated the Muslim community even while talking secularism. “This time, Muslims have decided to teach a lesson to the Congress even if it means extending support to Narendra Modi,” says Rasheed. But conversations with Muslim voters in Delhi indicate that Rasheed’s optimism maybe misplaced. “It is not about good or bad. It is about lack of alternatives,” says Mohammad Aasim, electronics and communications engineer from Ballimaran area which is the Muslim heartland in central Delhi and the constituency of Congress leader and state food & civil supplies minister Haroon Yusuf. Aasim points out that the situation is not too bad under the current MLA regarding basic amenities. But there is no movement for the citizens here in terms of social mobility, he says, “People are so entangled in basic facilities that they cannot think beyond them. An ambulance or fire brigade cannot enter this area due to heavy traffic which is the result of small industrial units. But despite numerous accidents, nothing changed. Anything beyond bijli, sadak, paani is a non- issue here,” he says. Aasim will consider voting for the AAP, but a vote for the BJP, he says, is “out of question.” The voter refrain in other assembly constituencies in Delhi where Muslims call the shots is the same- even if you are disgruntled with the Congress, vote for it to keep the BJP at bay. Exceptions to this trend are the assembly seats where political leaders matters more than the party. Matia Mahal seat in the walled city is the stronghold of Lok Janshakti Party MLA Shoib Iaqbal. Iqbal won last three consecutive assembly elections, every time contesting from a different party. “He is a party in himself,” says Tayab Mirza, who runs one of the oldest printing press units in the area. While the MLA is said to have allegiance with the builder mafia, it is not a concern for the inhabitants of the area who are happy with Iqbal as he gets their work done. Elsewhere in Okhla, where the residents were unhappy with Congress’ stand on Batla House encounter, the party is trying to win back their trust. Asif Mohammad, the sitting MLA from RJD and one of the most vocal critics of the Congress, recently joined the Congress. While many Okhla residents are surprised by his move, it may work in Congress’s favour in case the party fields Asif as its candidate in the upcoming elections. “He has always won on emotional plank. Currently, people are upset with him, but you never know. He might come up with something new right before election day,” says Ashraf Khan, who runs a tea stall in the area. The Congress was not a popular choice amongst Delhi’s Muslims until the 1998 assembly polls, when 53 percent Muslims voted for the Congress. Its vote share rose 68 percent during the 2003 polls. However, the party lost five percent vote share of Muslims in latest assembly polls held in 2008, as a sizable chunk of the community voted for the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) instead. The BSP ranked third in six assembly seats with predominant Muslim population. In East Delhi, the Muslim vote was split among independent candidates and regional parties such as the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal. Migrants, especially families from Western Uttar Pradesh, form the vote share of the BSP and the SP in Delhi. But experts say that this time, due to recent riots in Uttar Pradesh’s Muzzafarnagar district, these votes will come back to the Congress party’s fold. “The BSP was in power in UP during 2008 Delhi assembly elections. Its vote share in Delhi reached 14 percent. This time, the SP is in power in UP and it was expecting similar gains in Delhi. But the party is now on a back foot because of Muzaffarnagar episode,” says Navaid Hamid, Muslims rights activist and member of the National Integration Council. “This is how the Congress will indirectly gain from the riots,” he adds. So which way will Delhi’s Muslims sway? Should the Congress be worried this time? “Status quo will continue,” says Manisha Priyam, political analyst. “While the Congress has done nothing special for Muslims in Delhi, their situation is not very bad either. There is nothing going significantly wrong for the Congress which will cost it the Muslim vote.”
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